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created: 2008-02-24 23:03:28
Weekly Outlook Feb 24
********************************************** WEEKLY REPORT 22nd February 2008 http://www.swingtradinglab.com/ Don’t forget to get your full PDF copy of this report by Logging on to the site and getting the latest from the archives reports. ********************************************** Commodities were the star performer. Oil prices hot $100/bbl on highs and relaxed back to $98.81. Gold was the most popular adding $40.40 to the futures price finishing at $944.70. The XAU was most popular this week with a big buy up in gold shares and the XAU finished 7% higher. Stocks were relatively flat throughout with good and bad news rocking the boat. Bad news manufacturing is down and further declines are likely also affected by a downgrade was Fanny Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE:FRE). Ambac had been trading lower on fears of an imminent rating downgrade. Bond insurer woes have raised fears about municipal debt and financial firms' mortgage-related securities holdings. But on Friday the fears were alleviated and after CNBC said a recapitalization deal to save Ambac's AAA rating could come Mon. or Tue shares rallied 16% and took the DOW with it. It’s been another volatile week and the trend or lack of it difficult to pick due the various news items. It’s important to take advantage of the indicators and watch where the money is flowing in such situations. We have indicated this is this weeks report. The outlook is not favorable for the major stock indices at all. ECRI, The Economic Cycle Research Institute's leading U.S. index fell 0.8 point 14 the week ended Feb. 15 to 132.3, the lowest since late Jan.'s 3-year low. The 4-week annualized growth rate sank to -10.2%, the lowest since Oct. '01, just after 9/11 and in the midst of America's last recession. Admittedly the employment figures are keeping the countries hopes at large and there has been a any real large scale unemployment rises but the other indictors such as manufacturing, housing and orders have all been affected indicating slowdown, Commodity prices have taken a real jump this week as oil and gold hiked up and still more expected to come. There isn’t much reprieve in the horizon at this stage as the VIX and Advance Decline indicators are pointing to further declines in the equities markets. The oil sector and miners will keep you stable otherwise protect you positions again and it will be a rough ride until we really hit bottom. Good Luck Rob Miraglia Founder http://SwingTradingLab.com/